# ECB survey shows short-term consumer inflation expectations edging up

> September’s euro-area survey put median one-year inflation expectations at 3.1%, with Spain, France and Italy included in the survey population.

- Topic: Economic and industry statistics
- Subjects: Inflation, Official statistics, Finance
- Event date: 2026-10-23
- First published on EPC Feed: 2026-10-25T01:45:37.511Z
- Updated: 2026-10-25T01:45:37.511Z
- Countries: Spain, France, Italy
- Page: https://epcfeed.com/news/ecb-september-consumer-inflation-expectations-rise


## Key facts

- One-year inflation expectations: Median 3.1%, compared with 3.0% inAugust
- Three-year expectations: Median 2.9%, unchanged
- Five-year expectations: Median 2.5%, unchanged
- Fieldwork: 27 August–28 September 2026
- Geographic basis: Aggregate of 11 euro-area countries; not national inflation readings

The European Central Bank published its September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey on 23 October, reporting a modest increase in households’ short-term inflation expectations. Median expected inflation for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% inAugust, while the median perceived rate for the preceding 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations three years ahead remained 2.9%, and the five-year measure stayed 2.5%. These are respondents’ perceptions and expectations across the surveyed euro-area population, including Spain, France and Italy, rather than measured national consumer-price inflation.

The same release reports expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, compared with 1.0% inAugust, and expected nominal spending growth of 3.7%, up from 3.6%. Expectations for economic growth declined to −1.5% from −1.2%. Fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September. The 23 October publication is the news event; the results describe that earlier survey wave and should not be read as observations collected on publication day.

## How the survey measures expectations

The ECB’s methodological guide describes an online panel conducted monthly sinceJanuary 2020. It gathers both qualitative answers, such as whether a variable will rise or fall, and quantitative estimates supplied by respondents. Its published indicators cover inflation, income and consumption, labour markets and economic growth, and housing and credit. These different question types produce different statistical objects. A balance of answers, a numeric mean and a median are therefore not interchangeable descriptions of the same distribution.

For the quantitative indicators, the aggregation guide distinguishes weighted means from weighted medians and explains its treatment of extreme observations. The September release identifies the inflation figures as medians, while its general convention for other statistics is a 2% winsorised mean unless stated otherwise. A median describes the central point of a distribution; it need not move by the same amount as a mean. The guide’s definitions also distinguish expectations for a future period from perceptions of the past, preventing a rise in perceived inflation from being reported as a newly measured price change.

## Coverage, publication and interpretation

The methodological information page describes the CES as a modular survey with monthly and quarterly components. Aggregate results are released in the final ten days of each month, with datasets supporting the four topical result reports available separately. The ECB also publishes individual-level microdata quarterly, organized into background, monthly and quarterly modules, together with metadata describing variables and observations. Those research files and the headline monthly aggregates are separate releases; this report uses the ECB’s published aggregate results and methodological material.

The September release says the survey currently covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries. Spain, France and Italy are among the original six countries described in the aggregation guide; five more countries were added in 2022. The headline numbers in the release are survey-wide results, so they cannot be assigned to any one of those three national populations. The ECB makes country aggregates available separately for comparisons using matching definitions and survey periods. It also states that respondents’ expectations do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. The next monthly results, forOctober, are scheduled for 27 November 2026.

## Sources

1. [ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261023~a3d201c97c.en.html). Official data, European Central Bank, Published 2026-10-23, Read 2026-10-25.
2. [Consumer Expectations Survey: Data and methodological information](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/data_methodological.en.html). Reference, European Central Bank, Read 2026-10-25.
3. [ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics, March2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/shared/pdf/CES_aggregate_statistics_guide.en.pdf). Reference, European Central Bank, Read 2026-10-25.