# French retail and automotive trade sentiment falls as activity expectations slide

> Insee’s October indicator declined three points, with weaker general activity expectations while sales balances edged up from September but stayed below average.

- Topic: Economic and industry statistics
- Subjects: Official statistics
- Event date: 2026-10-22
- First published on EPC Feed: 2026-10-25T01:45:37.511Z
- Updated: 2026-10-25T01:45:37.511Z
- Countries: France
- Page: https://epcfeed.com/news/france-retail-and-auto-survey-october-2026


## Key facts

- Business climate indicator: 93.2 in October, down from 95.8 in September
- General activity prospects balance: -42 in October; -32 in September; long-run average -28
- Expected sales balance: -12 in October; long-run average -5
- Expected selling prices balance: 13 in October; long-run average 0

Insee’s October business survey for French retail, vehicle sales and vehicle repair found sentiment worsening again. The combined business-climate index fell three points to 93.2 from 95.8 in September, moving further below its long-term average of 100. The report was published on 22 October. Its headline combines retail trade with trade and repair of motor vehicles; it is based on surveyed business opinions, not monthly sales volumes.

The main drag identified by Insee was the balance of opinion on general activity prospects. It fell sharply to minus 42, compared with minus 32 in September and a long-run average of minus 28. Insee said the balance approached its May level, last seen in October 2014 outside the pandemic period. The wording concerns managers’ expectations about broad activity, rather than a measured forecast of sales or household spending.

Several shorter-term demand indicators moved in a less negative direction but remained weak. The balance on past sales improved from minus 14 to minus 13, while expected sales rose from minus 13 to minus 12; both were still below their long-run averages of minus nine and minus five, respectively. Order intentions stayed at minus 13, below an average of minus nine, and had remained below that reference for seven consecutive months.

Inventory views moved the other way. The balance on current stock levels rose from nine in September to 15 in October, passing its long-term average of 10. Insee reports balances, so a higher stock balance means more favourable responses on stock levels relative to the question’s benchmark; it does not state how many units retailers held. The release gives no absolute stock totals or split by product category in its headline findings.

On prices, the balance for expected selling prices climbed to 13, compared with a long-run average of zero. The balance on past prices is asked every other month, so October’s table does not provide a new observation for that series. Employment responses were mixed: the balance for past staffing fell to minus 11, while planned staffing improved from minus 11 to minus eight. Both remained beneath their respective long-run averages.

The uncertainty balance was nearly unchanged at 35, one point below its long-run average of 36. Insee marks that measure as unadjusted for seasonal variation. In contrast, the climate indicator and most balances are seasonally adjusted. That distinction matters because the published table includes multiple question types and frequencies: cash position and past price questions are bimonthly, while the headline combines responses across retail and automotive trade.

Insee’s methodology note explains that opinion balances are calculated as the percentage of weighted responses that say a measure is rising, above normal or easy, minus the percentage saying it is falling, below normal or difficult. The October survey’s indicator includes questions such as activity prospects, sales, order intentions, inventories, prices and employment. The result is a concise measure of the direction of opinion; it does not on its own explain why managers changed their views or establish what will happen to consumer demand.

## Sources

1. [En octobre 2026, le climat des affaires dans le commerce de détail et d’automobiles s’assombrit de nouveau – Informations rapides no. 255](https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/9094608). Official data, Insee, Published 2026-10-22, Read 2026-10-25.
2. [Enquête mensuelle dans le commerce de détail et l’automobile: note méthodologique 2026](https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/documentation/Note_m%C3%A9thodo-comd_FR_2026%20%28mise_%C3%A0_jour_juillet_2026%29.pdf). Official data, Insee, Published 2026-07-01, Read 2026-10-25.
3. [Enquête mensuelle dans le commerce de détail et l’automobile: série de conjoncture](https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/serie/010754468). Official data, Insee, Published 2026-09-24, Read 2026-10-25.