Economic and industry statisticsEconomy and markets
French services confidence edges up, while freight transport and hiring views weaken
Insee’s services indicator rose to 99 in October, but the survey showed a record uncertainty balance outside the pandemic and a sharper deterioration in road-freight expectations.
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Insee’s October survey found a slight improvement in the overall business climate for French services. The index reached 99.3, rounded to 99, gaining one point on the month and nearing its long-run average of 100. The indicator summarises surveyed managers’ views. It does not mean that services output grew by 1%, nor does it say that all service industries moved in the same direction.
Managers were more optimistic about their own expected activity than in September. The balance on expected activity rose to four, above a long-run average of one, while the balance on expected demand recovered slightly to minus one, its long-run average. The outlook for the service sector as a whole improved to minus nine, but remained below its average of minus seven for the tenth month running. Past activity weakened after two months of improvement.
Employment signals varied by measure. The balance for expected employment across services improved from minus six to minus four, still below its average of two. For services excluding temporary-work agencies, however, expected employment fell to minus six, below its average of minus one. The past-employment balance increased slightly but remained well under its historical average. These opinion balances indicate the distribution of responses, not payroll headcounts or an employment forecast.
Prices were comparatively steady. The expected selling-price balance remained at five, above its long-run average of minus one, while the past-price balance slipped from three to two, still above an average of minus two. In the quarterly part of the survey, the investment-expectations balance eased from minus one in July to minus two in October, below an average of three. Insee cautioned that it revised the investment-response stratification, recalculating balances back to July 2022; the change affects quarterly planned-investment balances by at most four points.
Perceived economic uncertainty rose to 21, its highest level outside the pandemic since the series began in April 2021, and well above its average of 12. The release separately reports constraints on activity: seven per cent of respondents cited both supply and demand difficulties, 17% demand-only difficulties and 19% supply-only difficulties. These percentages are different from the survey’s opinion balances and should not be conflated with the headline index.
Subsector results diverged. Administrative and support services showed a marked rebound: their climate indicator rose from 91 in September to 96 in October, with expected activity moving from minus seven to two and planned employment from minus 12 to five. Information and communication edged up to 97. Specialised, scientific and technical activities stayed at 101. Accommodation and food services rose to 99, while the road-freight transport indicator dropped to 95 from 99.
Insee’s source documentation says the services survey is designed to provide early information for cyclical diagnosis and short-term forecasting. Managers are asked about recent and expected turnover, prices, staffing, demand, cash position, investment and constraints. The questionnaire and processing are harmonised substantially across the European Commission’s business-survey programme. Data are gathered monthly, with certain questions asked less often. October’s reading should therefore be read as a timely survey snapshot, with its individual component questions retaining their own frequencies and methodological notes.
Sources
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